Better to be Last to Pick a VP

Being the first of the two candidates to pick a VP is not smart. It's much better to wait for the other one to make his pick, and then strategize against that.

For example, if Obama picks a MALE VP, then the strongest VP for McCain becomes Condi. That would pick up a lot of the disgruntled female Democrats who will be furious about Hillary being passed over. Condi would also steal Obama's black thunder. He would no longer be so important, because blacks would be getting a black Prez or VP either way. So black voter turnout would go way down, plus Obama would lose black conservatives who would other vote for him.

On the other hand, if Obama picks Hillary, Condi is a much less attractive pick. Then, his best pick becomes Mitt Romney. Mitt Romney will pick Democrats who are annoyed with having a female VP as well as all of the Blue Dog Democrats who will be repulsed by having two very liberal candidates.

Similarly, Obama could adjust his choice against who McCain chooses, if he does indeed choose early.

I think that either Mitt Romney or Condi would be formidable opponents to Obama. Old Huck isn't the worst either. He plays a mean guitar. But his policies are totally insane.

Draft 1: 7/23/08