My Market Predictions
Here's my market predictions. We know that the market experts are all a bunch of complete and total idiots. So you're probably just as well off following my advice. Or even the advice of a trained monkey.
My prediction is that the market is going to remain essentially flat for the next 20-30 years. It will fluctuate between a bottom of 6500 and a top of 8000.
Why? That is pretty much what happened after the 1929 market crash. After all those people lost so much money in the market, there was no way that they would again seriously invest in the market. Consequently, the market remained essentially flat all the way until the mid 1980's.
Finally, in the mid 1980's, the Greatest Generation, who had lived thru the Depression, began to die off and fade from power. They were succeeded by the Clueless Generations. The Clueless Generations were those who had never gone thru a Great Depression, and they did not believe that a Great Depression, or a Great market crash, could happen again.
So lacking the wisdom of their fathers, as their fathers died off, the Clueless Generation began putting their money into "safe" 401K's and Mutual Funds. These were "safe" because they were scientifically balanced with stocks that did well in recessions as well as those that did well in booms.
The conventional wisdom in the 90's and the 00's was that all you had to do was leave your money in the market, and in the long run it would pay off. Sorry Charlie, but that's unlikely.
Unfortunately for the Stock Brokers, you now have a new Un-clueless Generation which is not going to be suckered into investing in the market again. At least, not in the huge numbers of the 80's, 90's and 00's.
Consequently, with the number of people investing in the market decimated, the market will not recover to pre-crash levels for perhaps 30 years. The market must wait for a new generation of suckers.
This generation of suckers has been sucked dry.
6/16/09 - Market is up to 8600, but I think that it's going to fall back pretty soon. It should stay cyclical, unless it's all an inflation effect.
My prediction is that the market is going to remain essentially flat for the next 20-30 years. It will fluctuate between a bottom of 6500 and a top of 8000.
Why? That is pretty much what happened after the 1929 market crash. After all those people lost so much money in the market, there was no way that they would again seriously invest in the market. Consequently, the market remained essentially flat all the way until the mid 1980's.
Finally, in the mid 1980's, the Greatest Generation, who had lived thru the Depression, began to die off and fade from power. They were succeeded by the Clueless Generations. The Clueless Generations were those who had never gone thru a Great Depression, and they did not believe that a Great Depression, or a Great market crash, could happen again.
So lacking the wisdom of their fathers, as their fathers died off, the Clueless Generation began putting their money into "safe" 401K's and Mutual Funds. These were "safe" because they were scientifically balanced with stocks that did well in recessions as well as those that did well in booms.
The conventional wisdom in the 90's and the 00's was that all you had to do was leave your money in the market, and in the long run it would pay off. Sorry Charlie, but that's unlikely.
Unfortunately for the Stock Brokers, you now have a new Un-clueless Generation which is not going to be suckered into investing in the market again. At least, not in the huge numbers of the 80's, 90's and 00's.
Consequently, with the number of people investing in the market decimated, the market will not recover to pre-crash levels for perhaps 30 years. The market must wait for a new generation of suckers.
This generation of suckers has been sucked dry.
6/16/09 - Market is up to 8600, but I think that it's going to fall back pretty soon. It should stay cyclical, unless it's all an inflation effect.
posted by Jack W. Orf | 12:00 PM
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